The Royal Rumble is the first big event of the WWE calendar, and it’s second biggest show of the year. (Here are my takes on some previous Rumbles.) And every year there is a lot of speculating on who’s going to win each match. Well I’m here to tell you that you don’t need to wrack your brain trying to make a prediction, because it’s actually pretty easy. There is a science to figuring who is likely to win. When you’re trying to figure out who to pick, there are two questions to ask:
- Who’s got a WrestleMania story to tell, and is otherwise unoccupied?
- Who is the company presenting like a main eventer?
That’s it. The Royal Rumble is not an elevation device to try and convince us that this guy or gal just might be the next big thing. The winner is almost always somebody who the company has already demonstrated through booking that they think is a main eventer. Ever since they started awarding the winner with a WrestleMania World Title match (or in 1992 and 2016 the World Title itself), midcarders largely needed not apply. Just run through the list of winners; since Yokozuna won it in 1993 only seven male winners did not main event a previous or subsequent WrestleMania – Vince McMahon, Chris Benoit, Rey Mysterio, Alberto Del Rio, Sheamus, Shinsuke Nakamura, and Drew McIntyre. And out of those seven only Nakamura would not go on to with the World Title at some point down the road (yes, even Vince McMahon won it once). As for the women, every Rumble winner had either already won a World Title, would win it at the subsequent WrestleMania, or would win it within a year of their Rumble victory. So again, no flyers taken in choosing a winner.
So how does that affect this year?
The announced women’s field so far has these former world champions: Alexa Bliss (5 times), Asuka (3), Bayley (4), Becky Lynch (7), Charlotte Flair (14), Iyo Sky (2), Liv Morgan(2), Nia Jax (2), and Rhea Ripley (3). There are also some expected entrants like AJ Lee (multi-time Divas champion), Bianca Belair (3 time world champion), Nikki Bella (multi-time Divas champion), and Tiffany Stratton (1). All of those ladies other than Lee who was gone for 10 years have either held or contended for a World Title in recent memory. That’s your pool; sorry guys, but neither Lyra Valkyria, Jordynne Grace, Roxanne Perez or Raquel Rodriguez is likely to to get a chance to move up the card here with a win. Sol Ruca (a likely unannounced entrant) is not going to get a Rumble victory as a means of getting called up to the main roster.
On the men’s side there are former champs Brock Lesnar (multi-time World and Universal Champion), Cody Rhodes (2 times), Gunther (2), Jey Uso (1), Randy Orton (14), and Roman Reigns (4). That’s your winners pool. Don’t bet on Penta or Oba Femi. Bron Breakker was recently a favorite to win but it’s hard to imagine him getting chosen over all of those guys this year to go face CM Punk again after Punk beat him clean on the January 5th RAW.
Ok, so based on the rules, who’s taking it?
On the womens’ side Alexa, AJ Lee, ecky, and Charlotte are all pretty much locked in for what they’re going to be doing at WrestleMania this year, so you can scratch them off. Asuka hasn’t missed a WrestleMania for anything other than injury, so I’m assuming that she and Kairi Sane will be involved in whatever Alexa and Charlotte are in. Bayley and Jax, if they’re on the Mania card, will also be involved in whatever the tag team title situation is. That leaves Bianca, Iyo, Morgan, Ripley, Nikki, and Tiffany. You can go ahead and scratch Nikki off the top. Iyo and Ripley are currently tag team champions; if they’re not going to be in the tag team title match then yes either or both of them are possible winners. Morgan has a looming split with her Judgement Day mates Raquel and Roxanne that could be carried out through a Rumble victory and failed challenge for the title. But I’m going with Bianca, assuming of course that she is ready to go. Bianca vs Jade is the obvious call for WrestleMania, and she won the Elimination Chamber last year so I can’t see a scenario in which she doesn’t win the Rumble and instead wins the Chamber again. ‘3 Time Elimination Chamber winner’ doesn’t have the same ring as ‘2 time Rumble winner’, let’s be real here folks. If she’s not ready then I think we get a callback to the 1994 Bret Hart/Lex Luger double elimination with Rhea and Iyo. As for Morgan I just don’t see how she would win it over Ripley, and Iyo in 2026. Same goes for Stratton, who just held the title for 10 months and has already wrestled Jade on free television several times in 2025.
As for the men’s Rumble it’s Roman. Brock is there to throw a bunch of people out before someone gets him. Cody winning three Rumbles in four years, for a shot at a title that he’s held for 16 of the last 20 months, doesn’t seem like a wise choice right now. Gunther winning the Rumble and facing Punk? I can’t see it, not so long as Roman is going to be working at Mania. A returning Seth Rollins? If he makes it back he’ll be making a beeline for the guys who put him on the shelf and get taken out in the process Beyond them, there really aren’t a lot of guys who are positioned to do it who aren’t already holding a World title. Except one, and he’s my dark horse pick – Randall Keith Orton. Randy has history with Drew McIntyre and is as easy a plug and play main eventer as you will find out there.
We’ll see what happens, but remember – when picking a Rumble winner a safe pick beats an adventurous one.
Stroke of Genius 