A couple of months ago I started to do a deep dive into the history of the WNBA MVP voting results and how players’ stats correlated with the voting, and in doing so came up with my own method of using stats, which I called the NODE method, to determine who was most likely to win. You can read all that here. So now that the voting is over and we know who won, how did I do? Did I pick the winner or did I whiff? How close did my top five predictions go? Let’s see.
2026 vs History
Here’s how this year’s winner Aja Wilson stacked up compared to the last 10 winners using my NODE method:
| Year | MVP | NODE total | NODE rank out of finalists | NODE rank out of the league |
| 2026 | Aja Wilson | 40.631 | 1st | 1st |
| 2025 | Aja Wilson | 39.329 | 1st | 1st |
| 2024 | Aja Wilson | 45.035 | 1st | 1st |
| 2023 | Breanna Stewart | 38.520 | 1st | 1st |
| 2022 | Aja Wilson | 33.474 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2021 | Jonquel Jones | 33.977 | 3rd | 3rd |
| 2020 | Aja Wilson | 33.080 | 1st | 1st |
| 2019 | Elena Della Donne | 31.745 | 1st | 1st |
| 2018 | Breanna Stewart | 34.644 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2017 | Sylvia Fowles | 32.355 | 1st | 3rd |
| 2016 | Nneka Ogwumike | 33.580 | 2nd | 2nd |
Wilson is the seventh winner in eleven years to finish first in NODE among all the finalists and the sixth winner over that same time to finish first in the league. She’s also the sixth winner and the fourth straight to finish first in both. She finished with the second highest NODE score all time of any winner, trailing only her 2024 total. She’s also the only player to finish with a NODE score above 40, which she has done twice. But what about the other historical benchmarks, did they hit or miss in 2026?
- Over the last 10 years the MVP winner finished in the top 5 in at least two categories no worse than fourth in the standings. (2026 Result: Aja’s Aces finished third)
- No MVP winner in the last 10 years had a NODE score less than 31.745, or has finished worst than third among either the top 5 vote getters or the league in NODE scores. (Yes on both of these)
- Only twice has an MVP not finished in the top 5 in points, rebounds, assists, steals or blocks (Aja led the league in points and blocks in 2026)
- Only one rookie (Candace Parker) and only two guards (Cynthia Cooper and Diana Taurasi) have won it (Aja of course is neither a rookie or a guard)
- Only 3 times in the past 10 years (9 times in league history) have two teammates finished in the top 5 vote getters, but two of those 3 did win the award (Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark finished third and fourth this year, so now it’s 4 out of 11 and 2 out of 4, respectively)
- Only 3 MVPs in league history have finished with a NODE score under 30 (The run extends to 27 out of 30)
I predicted that one or two of the top 5 in NODE would miss the top 5 in MVP votes, was I right?
Here’s the top 5 in NODE for 2026:
- Aja Wilson: 40.631
- Breanna Stewart: 33.828
- Caitlin Clark: 32.407
- Angel Reese: 31.344
- Paige Bueckers: 31.022
Reese and Bueckers did not make the top five so the pattern held. I predicted that the outsiders would be among Stewart, Clark and Reese and I was right on Reese but Clark and Stewie did indeed make it.
How did I do calling each individual?
Aja Wilson
I said: The only reason to not vote for her is you’re tired of voting for her. She’s gotta be the favorite no matter what your criteria is.
I was right! Ok, I wasn’t exactly going out on a limb here. This was no profile in courage on my part for sure. But it feels good to be right, regardless. She got all but nine of the first place votes; it should have been unanimous but whatever.
Olivia Miles
I said: There are some clear parallels between Miles’s and Clark’s rookie seasons…..Clark finished fourth in the MVP voting that year, and had the fifth highest NODE score in the league. So there are good reasons for her to finish in the top five but none for her actually winning it.
Olivia finished second in the voting, so I got another one!
Caitlin Clark
I said: As a guard she’s swimming against the tide of history just like Miles, and the sixth place finish for the Fever put her out of range of winning but make a favorite for a top 5 finish.
3 for 3, woohoo!!!
Kelsey Mitchell
I said: In terms of her chances of winning she falls very short of how the voting has gone in the past based on how she and her team have finished. She has virtually zero chance in winning based on any measure.
Angel Reese
I said: Historically and statistically speaking she passes every test, but there’s zero reason to pick her over Aja. Based on history she’s Top 5 worthy for sure but it’s rare that somebody gets MVP over someone who has better overall numbers and finishes higher in the standings who plays the same position.
She didn’t crack the top five but I didn’t predict her finishing that low either so I’ll call this one a push.
Paige Bueckers
I said: She has a chance at the top 5 but not much else.
She missed the top five, I’ll score this one as a ‘correct’ for me.
Breanna Stewart
I said: No one on a team that low has ever won the award, so forget anything other than a top 5 finish.
I got it!
Did I get the order right?
My personal ballot, if I had a vote, was:
- Aja
- Stewie
- Clark
- Reese
- Mitchell
Here’s the actual voting:
I got 3 out of 5 correct, which is a passing grade. I got some real issues with the overall voting. Mitchell and Clark were left off of 11 and 19 ballots, respectively. Mitchell had the longest streak of 20 point games in league history and Clark was the first player in league history to average 20 points and 8 assists a game. Even you vote them in fifth place both should have been on every ballot. Stewart was left off of 17 ballots, which is also egregious. I’m sorry but there is no scenario in which a serious observer of the league should not consider Stewart to be a top 5 player in the league, or one of the five most valuable players to their team this season. As for Miles, she was unanimous Rookie of the Year and that was the exactly right call. But by no means was she one of the five best or five most valuable players in the league. Recency bias is real but the way that Miles was completely neutralized the last few weeks of the season put an end to any case she may have had for this award, whereas Angel became more effective and more influential in the Dream’s defensive schemes as the season went on while she killed it on the boards all season long.
I think the Miles voters had already made up their minds by the All-Star break and that was that; the ‘not Aja again’ campaigning that was going on throughout the season needs to stop; last year it was Napheesa Collier and this year it was Olivia. Collier did have a real case before her injury in 2025 because Aja had a bit of a lull early on and the Aces were stuck around .500. No such thing this season; Aja was dominant out of the gate and the Aces flirted with first place for at least the first half of the season and were never worse than third. There was no reason to consider anyone else; if you compared Miles to Wilson at any point during this season and thought she was doing better, you shouldn’t be allowed to vote in this thing. I know I’m piling on Miles here but we’re talking about MVP, not an All Star game or Rookie of the Year or some other award. MVP means you are the best in the entire league, and the bar to clear is a lot higher.
OK I’ll move on now. Anyhow, congrats to Aja on her fifth MVP. And next season let’s not do another rationalization campaign for someone else, ok?
