Who’s the MVP this year? The winner is rarely unanimous as only once in the last 10 years has there been a unanimous winner. So since some other people are going to get some votes I thought I’d look at all the people who have been talked about the most and who I thought were not crazy to consider – meaning that if their team were to campaign for them to win it you should understand. If you have a winning team that’s going to the playoffs and you have one or more players putting up big numbers then hell yes you should put their hat in the ring for MVP. It’s pretty obvious that those numbers are a big reason why you’re winning so they are indeed quite valuable. Now it’s hard to assign an actual percentage of value that one player has unless there’s some clear evidence like the team losing any game they don’t play in so we rely heavily on numbers. Which is what I’m doing here. And like a lot of numbers nerds out there I made up my own wacky method for looking at stats and determining things. I call it the NODE method.
NODE is short for NO DErivatives. I’ve always believed that you can glean whatever information for need about performances in sports from the basic stats that were traditionally measured. I could go on a long rant about advanced analytics but I’ll save it for another time, just know that I hate them all, especially for basketball because they can be gamed so easy and the conditions just don’t line up right to rely on them in these conversations.
Here’s my NODE formula:
(Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals + Field Goal% + 3 Point%) – Turnovers = NODE
You just add up the good stuff, throw in the shooting percentages, and subtract the bad thing. By including the percentages the better shooters are rewarded without it overshadowing everything else.
For refence I looked up the top five MVP vote getters over the last 10 years, the top 5 NODE scores in the league for those 10 years, last ten MVPs, and all the previous winners in league history. Here’s what the last 10 winners looked vs the other top vote getters and the league as a whole:
| Year | MVP | NODE total | NODE rank out of finalists | NODE rank out of the league |
| 2025 | Aja Wilson | 39.329 | 1st | 1st |
| 2024 | Aja Wilson | 45.035 | 1st | 1st |
| 2023 | Breanna Stewart | 38.520 | 1st | 1st |
| 2022 | Aja Wilson | 33.474 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2021 | Jonquel Jones | 33.977 | 3rd | 3rd |
| 2020 | Aja Wilson | 33.080 | 1st | 1st |
| 2019 | Elena Della Donne | 31.745 | 1st | 1st |
| 2018 | Breanna Stewart | 34.644 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2017 | Sylvia Fowles | 32.355 | 1st | 3rd |
| 2016 | Nneka Ogwumike | 33.580 | 2nd | 2nd |
- Over the last 10 years the MVP winner finished in the top 5 in at least two categories no worse than fourth in the standings.
- MVP winner in the last 10 years had a NODE score less than 31.745, or has finished worst than third among either the top 5 vote getters or the league in NODE scores.
Historical Data
- Only twice has an MVP not finished in the top 5 in points, rebounds, assists, steals or blocks
- Only one rookie (Candace Parker) and only two guards (Cynthia Cooper and Diana Taurasi) have won it
- Only 3 times in the past 10 years (9 times in league history) have two teammates finished in the top 5 vote getters, but two of those 3 did win the award
- Only 3 MVPs in league history have finished with a NODE score under 30
So what’s it look like this year?
Here’s the top 5 in NODE for 2026:
- Aja Wilson: 40.631
- Breanna Stewart: 33.828
- Caitlin Clark: 32.407
- Angel Reese: 31.344
- Paige Bueckers: 31.022
70% of the top 5 NODE scorers hav finished in the top 5 in MVP voting over the last 10 years but one or two has missed it every year; this season neither Stewart or Reese’s names are being mentioned at all in any MVP conversations I’ve seen so they’re the two most likely candidates here, although Clark and Kelsey Mitchell could cancel each other out and cause one of them to miss out.
Here are the NODE scores for everyone I think should be in the discussion, both for the season as a whole and since the All Star Break (the second row with the *). Just FYI there were a few players (Clark, Mitchell, Reese) whose teams and did not play them their usual minutes in the last game of the season so I did not include those games in the post All Star tally.
Aja Wilson
| Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE | |
| 2026 | 26.2 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 52.5 | 40.631 |
| 2026* | 26.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 53.1 | 40.543 |
Why yes: Her team finished third in the standings, her NODE score is well over 30 and the highest in the league, she leads the league in two categories (scoring and blocks) and is in the top 5 in another (rebounds), she’s not a rookie or a guard. So the odds are heavily in her favor. Not to mention that she has a better NODE score this year than when she won it last year, and her team finished higher in the standings than when she won it in 2024. She checks every box and surpasses every precedent, other than the ones that she set herself in previous seasons.
Why not: I got nothing. The only reason to not vote for her is you’re tired of voting for her.
Verdict: She has a 7 point lead in NODE over everyone else and her team finished third. In 2024 she had a 9 point NODE margin and her team finished fourth in the standings….and she won MVP. She’s gotta be the favorite no matter what your criteria is.
Olivia Miles
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 19.8 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 49.2 | 30.180 |
| 2026* | 20.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 50.2 | 30.459 |
Why yes: Her team is in first place and she has a NODE score over 30.
Why not: Statistically she isn’t in the top five in any traditional category while Aja, Caitlin, Mitchell, Angel, and Paige are all in the top 5 in at least one thing. She’s also a guard and a rookie so that’s two strikes out of the gate. Her NODE score qualifies compared to the entire history of the league but is short of anyone who won in the last 10 years.
Verdict: There are some clear parallels between Miles’s and Clark’s rookie seasons right down to their NODE scores – Clark finished with 30.461 in 2024 while Miles finished with 30.18, the two highest ever for rookie point guards. Clark finished fourth in the MVP voting that year, and had the fifth highest NODE score in the league. So there are of good reasons for her to finish in the top five but none for her actually winning it.
Caitlin Clark
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 22.8 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 45.3 | 32.407 |
| 2026* | 25.3 | 4.1 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 47.7 | 36.570 |
Why yes: She’s top 5 in two categories (scoring and assists) and her NODE score is well over the 10 year and 30 year thresholds. She has the third highest NODE score in the whole league.
Why no: Her team finished sixth; in league history only four times has someone won MVP on a team that finished worse then fourth and it hasn’t happened at all in the past 10 years. She’s a guard, and she has a teammate getting a lot of consideration which puts them both behind the probability 8-ball.
Verdict: As a guard she’s swimming against the tide of history just like Miles, and the sixth place finish for the Fever put her out of range of winning but make a favorite for a top 5 finish.
Kelsey Mitchell
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 24.7 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 50.9 | 29.659 |
| 2026* | 27.6 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 54.5 | 32.861 |
Why yes: She’s not out of range when you look at the entire league history. While she’s in the minority in every historical measure there has been someone who’s won the award with similar statistical rankings or team finish in the standings.
Why no: She’s a guard, her team is in sixth place, she only makes the top five in one category, she finished with a NODE score under 30, and the teammate factor (Clark).
Verdict: In terms of her chances of winning she falls very short of how the voting has gone in the past based on how she and her team have finished. She has virtually zero chance in winning based on any measure.
Angel Reese
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 16.6 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 45.3 | 31.344 |
| 2026* | 18.5 | 13.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 49.2 | 35.985 |
Why yes: Reese had a NODE score of 36 since the All Star Break, just a hair behind Clark. Her team is fourth in the standings and she’s in the top 5 in two categories. And she’s a big. Historically and statistically speaking she passes every test.
Why no: Only three MVPs in league history have averaged less than 18 points per game, and only one has averaged less than 17. At 16.6 ppg Angel would be the second lowest scoring MVP in history. But the short answer is that Aja is better, statistically and in the team standings. There’s zero reason to pick her over Aja.
Verdict: Based on history she’s Top 5 worthy for sure but it’s rare that somebody gets MVP over someone who has better overall numbers and finishes higher in the standings who plays the same position.
Anyone else?
Paige Bueckers was talked about earlier in the season but her team finished seventh and she’s a guard. She has a NODE score above 30 and finished in the top 5 in scoring so she has a chance at the top 5 but not much else.
Breanna Stewart has the league’s second highest NODE score and is a big but isn’t in any top fives for the season and her team is finished in eighth. No one on a team that low has ever won the award, so forget anything other than a top 5 finish.
So what’s the benchmark tally look like?
| Top 4 Team? | League Leader? | League Top 5s? | NODE over 30? | Top 3 NODE score? | |
| Wilson | Y | 2 | 3 | Y | Y |
| Reese | Y | 1 | 2 | Y | |
| Clark | 2 | Y | Y | ||
| Miles | Y | Y | |||
| Stewart | Y | Y | |||
| Bueckers | 1 | Y | |||
| Mitchell | 1 |
So if combine all my reference points and my own wacky point system, here’s what the results look like today:
- Wilson (2 leads + 3 top 5s + 3 Yes/No) = 8
- Reese (1 lead + 2 top 5s + 2 Yes/No) = 5
- Clark (2 top 5s + 2 Yes/No) = 4
- Miles (0 leads + 0 top 5s + 2 Yes/No) = 2
- Stewart (0 leads + 0 top 5 + 2 Yes/No) = 2
- Bueckers (0 leads + 0 top 5 + 1 Yes/No) = 2
- Mitchell (0 leads + 1 top 5 + 0 Yes/No) = 1
Wilson is running away with it, as I expected. As for the rest of the top 5, here’s my take on it all:
- Aja is…..Aja.
- Reese has been severely undervalued because her team has been in the middle of the playoff pack all season, her style of play doesn’t lend itself to a lot of highlight reels, and she’s still plagued by all the ‘mebounds’ nonsense but she had one of the best all around seasons in the league.
- Clark is the top point generator in the league – which has become a thing to measure because she’s putting up Wilt Chamberlain numbers at it compared to the rest of the league – and is a multidimensional threat who has gone on some insane runs and broken a lot of offensive records all season long.
- Miles’ team being so good did a whammy on her stats; all four of her fellow Lynx starters made the All Star team either this season or last, and one (Collier) is a perennial top 5 MVP vote getter; MVPs usually have to save their team some nights and she never really had to.
- Paige just barely cracked the top 5 in scoring by loading up on some bad teams and her team is in seventh place.
- Stewart is great statistically in total but her team being eighth is not good enough for this exercise.
- Mitchell is really great at one thing and that puts her behind the overall statistical 8 ball, but lately she was so prolific at it that it got her above certain historical thresholds.
And now for some editorializing…
The final voting isn’t just going to be based on stats or wins and is going to be different than this. Feelings, vibes, and narratives play a role no matter how much people deny it. There have been people reaching for any reason to vote for somebody other than Aja both this season and last, latching onto to any one bad game or back to back losses and running them up the flagpole for all to see in the hopes of proving that (insert name here) should get it instead. Let me be very clear that if that’s you, you are an unserious person and if you have an actual MVP vote it should be revoked. Put her side to side with any other player in the league and show me how that person is better, I dare you.
I have some strong feelings about Reese and Clark and where they will land in the voting. If you’re still shortchanging Reese because of one bad number on her stat sheet (field goal percentage) and a ridiculous ‘mebounds’ narrative then you are also an unserious person. Reese is on a pace to be the most prolific rebounder in league history and has become a major defensive presence; the Dream’s defensive improvement from last season needs to be figured into any assessment of her, along with how many rebounds she gets. The whole ‘mebounds’ thing has been debunked several times already so just let it go, people.
As for Clark I haven’t seen anyone’s on court performance get the ‘well actually’ treatment this much since Lebron. This season she’s had five games with 30 points and 10 assists and eight more with 20 and 10, with a 12-1 record throughout, and the Fever’s scoring, shooting percentages and free throw attempts are all way up this year from 2025 when she only played 13 games. And yet those eye popping performances are often met with ‘it was against a bad team!, or the tried and true ‘what about the turnovers?’ How many turnovers has every other MVP had? What’s that, you don’t know? I rest my case.
My personal ballot would look like this:
- Aja
- Stewie
- Clark
- Reese
- Mitchell
Stewie has dragged an injury plagued, lineup shifting team back to the playoffs. While the Liberty has a very good roster in total a lot of them have been in and out all season and she’s been the only constant. Clark and Reese I already talked about but I’ll just add that I don’t think anyone has added more to their team’s overall offensive and defensive performances, respectively, as those two have this season. Mitchell has set the single season record for points scored in a WNBA season, that’s bigger than anything anyone else has done that I haven’t mentioned. So that’s my take for now, we’ll see how it all shakes out.
But let me be very clear: You can use my method or any other method, but if you’re picking anyone other than Aja Wilson this year surrender your vote.
