Playoff time is here! Who’s gonna win? I thought I’d take a crack at guessing relying on my favorite thing: numbers! This time around I looked at various head vs head and overall team stats for everyone involved and took what I think is an educated guess at what might happen.
Minnesota (33-11, 14-8 vs Playoff Teams) vs New York (26-18, 11-11)
Key Team Stats:
- Minnesota – 90.8 points per game (4th), 47.7% FG (3rd), 38.2% 3FG (2nd), 17.4 free throws per game (15th), 8.7 steals per game (2nd), 43.5 FG% against per game (3rd), 14.5 turnovers caused per game (2nd)
- New York – 89.6 ppg (5th), 46.0% FG (6th), 35.5 rebounds/game (3rd), 11 turnovers caused/game (15th)
Head to head star numbers:
- Olivia Miles vs New York in 2026: 19.0 points, 4.7 assists, 6 rebounds, 32% FG
- Courtney Williams vs NY: 13.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2 assists, 40.5% FG
- Kayla McBride vs NY: 19.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 41.7% FG
- Breanna Stewart vs Minnesota: 25.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists. 55.8% FG
- Jonquel Jones vs Minnesota: 15.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 47.4% FG, 45.5% 3FG
- Sabrina Ionescu vs Minnesota: 19.7 points, 5.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 42.6% FG
What can/will happen? Minnesota hasn’t shown any ability to stop or slow down Stewart or Jones and even Sabrina Ionescu in the midst of a subpar season has gotten right against the Lynx this year. Meanwhile New York has managed to force Miles, Williams, and McBride into bad shooting nights. Is that enough? I don’t think so. The key for New York will be for Sabrina to continue to play well against the Lynx and to turn Miles into a passive shooting guard who hands the playmaking over to Williams. They can do that once for sure, but enough times to win a series? Minnesota has a starting five that have all made the All Star team either this year or last; that’s too much talent to hold down for more than one game at a time. Do I think they can take to three? Absolutely. But even then, game three is in Minnesota so checkmate.
RESULT: I was wrong!!! New York did do it for more than one game. Congrats to the Liberty. Jonquel got 21 and 13 in game 2, Sabrina got 18, 7 and 4 and Stewie got 21 and to follow up her 34 and 12 in game 1. So they hit their marks while on the Lynx only Courtney Williams did the same. Turns out the late season troubles that they Lynx had weren’t a blip, they were real.
Golden State (32-12, 14-8 against playoff teams) vs Dallas Wings (27-17, 7-15)
Key Team Stats:
- Golden State – 82.2 points per game (13th), 42.2% FG (15th), 75.1 points against per game (1st), 41.4 FG% against per game (1st), field goal attempts per game (1st)
- Dallas – 89.4 ppg (6th), 46.8% FG (4th), 85.3 points against (5th), 34.6 rebounds/game (4th)
Head to head star numbers:
- Paige Bueckers vs Golden State in 2026: 17.7 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds, 44.2% FG
- Arike Ogunbuwale vs Golden State: 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 41.2% FG
- Jessica Shepherd vs Golden State: 8.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 41.7% FG
- Gabby Williams vs Dallas: 22.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 42.6% FG
- Veronica Burton vs Dallas: 16.3 points, 5.7 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 50% FG
What can/will happen? Dallas will make a game of it but I think the Valkyries at some point will get control and keep it. Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton have outperformed their season averages against the Wings while the Valkyries have been able to stifle Bueckers, Ogunbuwale, and Jessica Shepherd. Shepherd is the key player to slow down: when Dallas loses she only scores 11 points a game vs 16 in victory, and as you can see Golden State has held her to 9 points a game this year. The same can be said for Arike, who in defeat averages the same 14 points that Dallas has held her to. Can Paige Bueckers break through? It’ll be on her to try but they’ve done a good job at keeping her in check also. Unless Dallas has found a way to do something they haven’t been able to this season then this could be over in two, but even if it takes three Golden State should take it.
Las Vegas (31-13, 11-10 vs Playoff Teams) vs Indiana (28-16, 10-12)
Key Team Stats:
- Las Vegas – 91.5 points per game (2nd), 48.6% FG (2nd), 36.2% 3FG (2nd), 4.9 blocks/game (1st)
- Indiana – 96.0 ppg (1st), 48.7% FG (1st), 38.6% 3FG (1st)
Head to head star numbers:
- Aja Wilson vs Indiana in 2026*: 23.0 points, 2.5 assists, 12.5 rebounds, 39.6% FG
- Jackie Young vs Indiana: 17.3 points, 2,3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 42.9% FG
- Chelsea Gray vs Indiana: 10.0 points, 6.3 assists, 2.7 rebounds, 31.0% FG
- Caitlin Clark vs Las Vegas*: 16.0 points, 7.0 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 38.7% FG
- Kelsey Mitchell vs Las Vegas: 27.3 points, 1.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 48.1% FG
- Aliyah Boston vs Las Vegas: 19.3 points, 11 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 59.5% FG
I think the keys to the series for the Fever are focus on slowing down or stopping Gray and Young, get something out of Mikayla Timpson (averaging 10 points and 8 rebounds when she plays over 30 minutes a game) and Sophie Cunningham (9 ppg and 49% shooting in wins vs 5.9 points and 39.7% in losses), and for Clark to play aggressive and free the whole game. In what is an insane stat Clark averages 4.9 turnovers in Fever victories and 4.1 in Fever losses, and the Fever are 16-6 this season when she has 5 or more turnovers and 8-10 when she has less. What does that mean? That she’s better when she’s attacking and worse when she’s forced into passivity.
For the Aces, it comes down to disrupting Clark and forcing her into being a passive presence. Force her into passing the ball off to teammates and hoping they get it back to her on offense. On offense it is vital to get Gray and Young going; Gray averages 13 points on 47% shooting in victory and 9 points on 35% shooting in defeat while Young goes 20 on 51% vs 15 on 41% shooting in wins vs losses. Young is also a much better passer in victory where she averages 7.6 assists vs 4.3 she averages in defeat.
What can/will happen? Anything. This is the unpredictable series. The Fever have kept Young and Gray in check and forced Wilson into a bad shooting night. Likewise the Aces have disrupted Clark and amplified her mistakes. So this can go any kind of way; the Fever could show and make the Aces look old or the Aces could make the Fever look haphazard and sloppy. It could be a sweep in either direction or a 3 game nail biter. On paper the Fever look to have more players who are capable of doing well; in an optimal situation they could have as many as six go into double figures in the same night while the Aces might have four. But Vegas has the best player in the game, the championship experience and the homecourt. Until they get beat I gotta pick Vegas.
Atlanta Dream (30-14, 10-11 vs Playoff Teams) vs Washington (28-16, 10-11)
Key Team Stats:
- Atlanta – 91.3 points/game (3rd), 35.6 rebounds a game (2nd), 10.7 offensive rebounds a game (1st), 9.1 steals/game (1st), 24.4 free throw attempts/game (2nd), 64.7 field goal attempts against/game (2nd), 15.4 turnovers caused/game (1st), 46.9% FG against per game (13th), 3.3 blocks/game (13th)
- Washington – 37.7 rebounds/game (1st), 24.9 free throw attempts/game (1st), 43.1% FG against (2nd), 84.0 ppg (12th), 5.5 steals/game (15th)
Head to head star numbers:
- Allisha Gray vs Washington in 2026*: 19.3 points, 3.3 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 44.2% FG
- Rhyne Howard vs Washington: 20.7 points, ,1.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 40.8% FG
- Angel Reese vs Washington: 12.7 points, 15.3 rebounds, 2.7 steals, 30.6% FG
- Sonia Citron vs Atlanta: 16.0 points, 4.5 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 50.0% FG
- Shakira Austin vs Atlanta: 16.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 55.9% FG
- Kiki Irafen vs Atlanta: 17.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 57.6% FG
What can/will happen? Well, this series is largely going to hinge on Angel Reese’s shooting for the Dream, Shakira Austin’s scoring and Kiki Irafen’s overall offensive performance for the Mystics. Kiki goes for 17 points and 10 rebounds in wins but 11 points and 8 rebounds in losses. The Dream this season managed to split the difference and keep her rebounding down but not her scoring or shooting. Shakira scores 18 in wins and 15 in losses which the Dream has managed to keep right in the middle of. They haven’t been able to stop any of the three Mystics stars from making shots as all of them have gone over 50% against them. Reese is night and day in wins vs losses: 17 points per game on 48.6% shooting in wins but 14.5 per game on 37.3% shooting in losses, and the Mystics have been able to hold her below both this year. Both teams go to the foul line at a league leading rate so there’s no edge there. I think what ultimately decides it is the guard play from Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard; the Mystics really have no answer other than Citron and she can’t do alone. So a tough series but I got Atlanta in 2.
