Note: this is a living document that I will update as the season goes on. If the standings change significantly enough I’ll change the order to reflect that.
The All Stars have been announced, but what we really want to know is who’s gonna win it all? Who has a real chance and who just might be a fraud? There are seven teams that I think should definitely make the playoffs, but how far can they go? Here’s what I think based on where things stand right now.
Minnesota Lynx (21-6)
Reason to Believe: They are absolutely killing everybody right now. They’re outshooting their opponents 48% to 42% and outscoring them 91 to 82, but even crazier is that their average margin of victory is 13 points right now. They have four starters averaging in double figures, all averaging between 15 and 19 a game. Natasha Howard is playing like an All Star again, Olivia Miles has already locked up rookie of the year and Napheesa Collier isn’t even back yet.
Reason to Doubt: There’s no way they can keep this up all year, even after Collier is back in the lineup. They were holding their opponents to 40 percent shooting through the first 24 games and now that’s crept up to 42; their margin of victory has also slid to 13 from 15 through those 24. That’s an impossible feat for the rest of the season, especially with 10 games remaining against teams that are currently in the top 7 in scoring. I know I’m reaching here but work with me, people.
How to beat them: You can stand a chance if you shoot well, but that’s about it. Their offense is well balanced and their top four scorers don’t fluctuate much in their production from night to night. So hit your shots and pray.
- Best case scenario: They finally win that elusive championship
- Worst case scenario: It all falls apart as the competition gets tougher and they lose in the conference finals
- Likely scenario: Back in the finals, and maybe winning.
Las Vegas Aces (18-7)
Reason to Believe: They brought everyone back from last year’s championship team, Aja Wilson is playing like her usual MVP self while Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are still producing at an All Star level. They’re also third in the league in scoring at 89.9, and first at shooting from the floor at 48.4%. They have a roster of stars and in a playoff series have three different places to turn for big performances when things get tough.
Reason to Doubt: Just like last year they are prone to inexplicably drop a stink bomb here and there. They opened the season with a 30 point blowout loss to Phoenix and followed a big win over first place Minnesota with another 30 points loss to Dallas. And just recently they followed a 50 point win against the Mercury with a 34 point loss to the Fever. Last year in the playoffs they struggled mightily to finish off Seattle in the first round, taking the whole three games to do it, then opened the next round with a double digit loss to the injury wracked Fever and then another loss in what should have been a closeout game 4 and a game 5 that went to overtime. (But in true Aces fashion once they got to the Finals they won in a four game sweep, LOL). They can be had on any individual night.
How to beat them: You can’t stop Aja but if you can keep her between 20 and 25 and keep everyone else down that’s good enough. Focus on Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young on defense; when they don’t shoot well the Aces are beatable by a good opponent.
- Best case scenario: Title number 4
- Worst case scenario: Semifinals loss
- Likely scenario: Back in the finals, maybe winning
Golden State Valkyries (19-8)
Reason to believe: Defense, defense, defense. The Valkyries are first in scoring defense allowing 76.1 points per game and second in field goal defense at 41.8%. They’ve played a tough schedule, with 14 of their 26 games being against teams in the top 7, and are 8-6 against them.
Reason to doubt: As great as they are on defense, they are that bad on offense. They are the worst shooting team in the league at 41.9% and average 82.2 points on offense, good for 12th. They only have one reliable scorer in Gabby Williams, who made the All Star team as a starter. Their best shooter among their regular starters is shooting 42.5% from the floor, which is just yikes. Given how defenses tend to tighten up in in the playoffs they are ripe for a few games where they struggle to even hit 75 points.
How to beat them: Play hard on defense. That sounds like a no brainer but their scoring woes prevent them from running away with anything. They’re hard to score on but if you can keep them down, which is very doable given what we’ve seen so far, with you then you have a shot at breaking through in the second half and beating them.
- Best case scenario: They can make the Finals
- Worst case scenario: First round loss if a they get an opponent who can score just enough that they can’t reach them.
- Likely scenario: I got them in the semifinals for sure. Their style of play is good for the first round in particular
Let me stop here to note that the standings have been really volatile from beyond this point. One week of games has been enough to rearrange everyone between fourth and seventh, and it’s likely to keep happening. Case in point, the Liberty were once solidly locked in at 4 and now they’ve slipped down to seventh and the Dream have gone from fourth to seventh and now back to fifth in like a two week span. So no, I’m not reordering the next few teams every time their positions change because if I just wait another week it’ll be right back to where it was when I first wrote this.
Dallas Wings (17-9)
Reason to Believe: They have a nice three guard lineup working with Paige, Arike, and Azzi while Jessica Shepard averages a double double nightly. They’re also one of the best teams in the league at not getting in foul trouble; they’re in the top 3 for fewest personal fouls per game and none of their regular starters averages more than 2.7 fouls a game.
Reason to Doubt: Other than Sheppard they have zero offensive presence in the paint. If she gets injured or in foul trouble they have no one who can consistently grab a rebound or score down low, and for all she does offensively she contributes nothing on defense. Their second leading rebounder is is Paige with 4.2, the lowest second rebounder of any team we’re considering here so far. They are last in the league in free throw attempts, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs. Lastly, their roster depth is painfully thin; for all intents and purposes they have a 4 woman team and no one else has been consistently good enough to warrant regular minutes.
How to beat them: Punish them in the paint when you’re on offense and slow the game down. Arike and Azzi can be forced into bad shooting nights; Azzi has shot under 40% in eight of her last ten games and Arike is only shooting 35% for the season. They don’t get to the foul line much so it’s imperative that you hit yours to take advantage of that.
- Best case scenario: They pull a first round upset before bowing out in the semifinals.
- Worst Case Scenario: Their size and roster deficiencies catch up with them and they go out early with a whimper
- Likely scenario: They make life tough for somebody in the first round before going down to defeat, but with the wrong matchup it could be over very fast.
Atlanta Dream (16-10)
Reason to believe: The Dream are great at limiting shot opportunities and are second in for fewest shot attempts against per game with 63.2. Led by Angel Reese they are first in the league in offensive rebounds and second in shot attempts per game. They’re also great at getting to the line, second in the league with 24.6 free throw attempts a game. They have two All Star guards and an All Star forward/center in Reese. They’ve played a tough schedule, with 12 of their 25 games being against teams in the top 7.
Reason to doubt: While they have a good scoring defense, fifth in the league with 85 points per game, they have a bad shooting defense that’s last in the league allowing 48.3% shooting from their opponents, including 37.5% from 3 which is also last. In other words, if you get a shot off against them it’s probably going in. They’re a bad shooting team themselves, too – 11th in the league with 43.8%, and their best shooting starter only hits at 46.7%. Getting outshot like every night is a recipe for hard times against better opponents.
How to beat them: Slow the game down and make them score in the halfcourt. Reese and Rhyne Howard are not good shooters and Reese is good for at least one offensive foul a game. On offense move the ball around and get good shots; they’re much better at keeping you from getting a shot off than causing you to miss them.
- Best case scenario: If matched against the right opponent they can win in the first round
- Worst case scenario: Swept in the first round
- Likely scenario: If they can finish at fourth or fifth in the standings they can win a round. Any lower than that and it’s gonna be a quick playoff.
Indiana Fever (16-10)
Reason to Believe: They are first in the league in scoring with 94.4 points per game and third in the league in shooting at 48.4%. They have three All Stars in Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, any of whom could finish top 5 in the MVP voting if they were the first option in the offense every night. They can go on a run against anyone; no lead is safe from the Fever. They score great in halfcourt sets and on fast breaks.
Reason to Doubt: No lead is safe with the Fever, either. They are prone to giving up big scoring runs after the first quarter no matter the opponent and have given up over 100 points 9 times, going 2-7 in those games. They are 12th in the league in scoring defense, giving up 89.7 points a game. If that’s not bad enough they only have one consistent scorer in the paint in Aliyah Boston, and if she gets hurt or in foul trouble they’re cooked. Their remaining schedule is tough, with 11 games against team that are current playoff qualifiers.
How to beat them: Don’t stop attacking on offense. They pick up fouls easy and they give up runs. Even with their offense they can’t keep it up for the whole 40 minutes so just keep attacking until they hit a dry spell and you can either pull away or catch up. Stephanie White has a quick trigger finger on Clark and Boston’s minutes so get a couple of early fouls on them so she’ll be tempted to sit them down.
- Best case scenario: An exciting three games in the first round where they put a real scare in a top four seed.
- Worst Case Scenario: First round sweep where they give up over 100 both nights, causing the coach to get fired
- Likely scenario: First round loss
New York Liberty (14-12)
Reason to believe: After a 3-4 start they won 8 in a row and now they have Sabrina Ionescu back. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are still doing what they do at MVP and All Star level we know them for, respectively, and they’ve gotten some good production out of Marine Johanes, who was filling in for Sabrina, and offseason pickup Pauline Astier. When they have their full lineup playing every night, which looks to finally be the case, they’re loaded with 4 All Stars and some other good players.
Reason to doubt: There are a lot of nights where they just look bad. Statistically they are in or close to the middle of the pack in everything They are 4-8 in their last 11 games and in their last two got blown out by the Fever and squeaked past the Paige-less Wings by one point. In game 15 they squeaked by bottom dweller Chicago by a single point after giving up a 6 point lead in the fourth quarter. A couple of weeks ago I had them close to fraud watch but right now there is no illusion anymore; they are struggling mightily.
How to beat them: The jury is out now the Ionescu is back. Check back in a week or two.
- Best case scenario: Semifinals
- Worst case scenario: First round loss
- Likely scenario: Given the way they’ve fallen in the standings to eight place it’s very likely they end up having to face the Lynx, Aces, or Valkyries in the first round. If that happens, pack it up folks.
Conclusions
That’s what I’m seeing as of right now. I’ll update this if anything radically changes but as it stands today I’d call it like this:
- Title contenders: Lynx, Aces
- Could reach the Finals: Valkyries
- Shaky ground: Liberty
- There to have a good time and grow together: Wings, Dream, Fever
- Likely eighth seed: Mystics
- Playing for a draft pick: Sparks, Tempo, Fire, Mercury, Sun, Storm, and Sky
Looking at the last 10 years of history one thing that jumps out is that the regular seaaon standings are almost perfect for predicting the champs. 9 out of the last 10 champs have finished no worse than second in the league standings and 6 out of 10 finished first. Not only that but 6 out of the last 10 Finals have been between the number 1 and number 2 teams in the standings, and two other times it was between number 1 and number 3. So with that in mind if we’re gonna keep it real for a minute….the topsy turvy nature of spots 4 through 7 means that those teams just aren’t good enough to be real contenders and all eventually hit a stretch of games where their weaknesses get exposed. Dallas is on a five game win streak as of today, mostly against non playoff qualifying teams. And as I mentioned earlier, Atlanta and New York have been on a roller coaster between fourth and seventh over the last few weeks. Those kind of teams just can’t be trusted. With the right opponent they can win in the first round; a three game series is ripe for upsets with the 1-1-1 format. But they could just as easily get swept in the first round with the wrong opponent or one who just locks in early. As shaky as the Liberty are there is always the possibility that they get right for the playoffs and finish as well as they usually do. It’s been an Aces/Liberty/Lynx league for the past couple of seasons but other than the Valkyries that’s how it’s probably going to stay.
Stroke of Genius 