The All Star has been announced, but what we really want to know is who’s gonna win it all? Who has a real chance and who just might be a fraud? There are seven teams that I think should definitely make the playoffs, but how far can they go? Here’s what I think based on where things stand right now.
Minnesota Lynx
Reason to Believe: They are absolutely killing everybody right now. They’re outshooting their opponents 49% to 39% and outscoring them 91 to 79, but even crazier is that their average margin of victory is 15 points right now. They have four starters averaging in double figures, all averaging between 14 and 18 a game. Natasha Howard is playing like an All Star again, Olivia Miles has already locked up rookie of the year and Napheesa Collier isn’t even back yet.
Reason to Doubt: There’s no way they can keep this up all year, even after Collier is back in the lineup. Holding their opponents to 39 percent shooting for the rest of the season is a damn near impossible feat, especially with 12 games remaining against teams that are currently in the top 7 in the standings. So far less than half of their schedule has been against top 7 teams so there is a real possibility that this start is a bit of a mirage.
How to beat them: You can stand a chance if you shoot well, but that’s about it. Their offense is well balanced and their top four scorers don’t fluctuate much in their production from night to night. So hit your shots and pray.
- Best case scenario: They finally win that elusive championship
- Worst case scenario: It all falls apart as the competition gets tougher and they lose in the conference finals
- Likely scenario: Back in the finals, and maybe winning.
Las Vegas Aces
Reason to Believe: They brought everyone back from last year’s championship team, and added Chennedy Carter, who is a shoo in for Sixth Woman of the Year and likely on her way to signing for big money somewhere after the season. Aja Wilson is playing at her usual MVP level while Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are still producing at an All Star level. They’re also scoring more points than last year (90.7 vs 83.6), and shooting better from the floor (48.8% vs 43.9% in 2025). They have a roster of stars and in a playoff series have four different places to turn for big performances when it matters.
Reason to Doubt: Just like last year they are prone to inexplicably drop a stink bomb here and there. They opened the season with a 30 point blowout loss to Phoenix and followed a big win over first place Minnesota with another 30 points loss, this time to Dallas. Last year in the playoffs they struggled mightily to finish off Seattle in the first round, taking the whole three games to do it, then opened the next round with a double digit loss to the injury wracked Fever followed by another loss in what should have been a closeout game 4 and a game 5 that went to overtime. Assuming they get back to the semifinals this year they will not be facing a depleted opponent that they can afford to blow games against and if they fall asleep at the wheel they’ll get sent packing just like in 2024.
How to beat them: You can’t stop Aja but if you can keep her between 20 and 25 that’s good enough. Other that focus on Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young on defense; when they don’t play well the Aces are beatable by a good opponent.
- Best case scenario: Title number 4
- Worst case scenario: Semifinals loss
- Likely scenario: Back in the finals, maybe winning
Golden State Valkyries
Reason to believe: Defense, defense, defense. The Valkyries are first in scoring defense allowing 77.9 points per game and second in field goal defense at 42.3%. They’ve played a tough schedule, with 12 of their 20 games being against teams in the top 7, and are 6-6 against them.
Reason to doubt: As great as they are on defense, they are that bad on offense. They are the worst shooting team in the league at 41.1% and average 82.8 points on offense, good for 13th in the league. They only have one reliable scorer in Gabby Williams and probably won’t have anyone who makes the All Star team. Their best shooter in their starting five is shooting 45.9% from the floor.
How to beat them: Play hard on defense. That sounds like a no brainer but their scoring woes prevent them from running away with anything. They’re hard to score on but if you can keep them down with you then you have a shot at breaking through in the second half.
- Best case scenario: A tough out in the first round
- Worst case scenario: Swept in the first round
- Likely scenario: Out in the first round
Atlanta Dream
Reason to believe: The Dream are great at limiting shot opportunities and are tied for first in the league with Golden State for fewest shot attempts against per game with 63.6. Led by Angel Reese they are first in the league in offensive rebounds and third in shot attempts per game. They’re also great at getting to the line, third in the league with 24 free throw attempts a game. They have two All Star guards and an All Star forward/center in Reese. They’ve played a tough schedule, with 11 of their 19 games being against teams in the top 7, and are 5-6 against them.
Reason to doubt: While they have a good scoring defense, fourth in the league with 83.8 points per game, it’s with a bad shooting defense that’s tied for 13th in the league allowing 47.1% shooting from their opponents, including 36.5% from 3 which is also good for 13th. In other words, if you get a shot off against them it’s probably going in. They’re a bad shooting team themselves, too, 10th in the league with 43.7%. Getting outshot like every night is a recipe for hard times against better opponents.
How to beat them: Slow the game down and make them score in the halfcourt. Reese and Rhyne Howard are not good shooters and Reese is good for a couple of offensive fouls a game. On offense move the ball around and get good shots; they’re much better at keeping you from getting a shot off than causing you to miss them.
- Best case scenario: If matched against the right opponent they can win in the first round
- Worst case scenario: Swept in the first round
- Likely scenario: If they get anyone other than the Aces, Lynx or Liberty they can win a round. If they do get one of those three early, forget it.
New York Liberty
Reason to believe: After a 3-4 start they won 8 in a row and now they have Sabrina Ionescu back. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are still doing what they do at MVP and All Star level we know them for, respectively, and they’ve gotten some good production out of Marine Johanes, who was filling in for Sabrina, and offseason pickup Pauline Astier. When they have their full lineup playing every night, which looks to finally be the case, they’re loaded with 4 All Stars and some other good players.
Reason to doubt: Their schedule to date looks something like what a major college program would put together, chock full of cupcakes. They’ve only played six teams that would land in the top 7 and qualify for the playoffs. In game 15 they squeaked by bottom dweller Chicago by a single point after giving up a 6 point lead in the fourth quarter. While I’m not going to call them frauds there is real reason to believe they might be a paper tiger.
- Best case scenario: Another title win
- Worst case scenario: First round upset
- Likely scenario: Semifinals loss
Dallas Wings
Reason to Believe: They have a nice three guard lineup working with Paige, Arike, and Azzi while Jessica Shepard averages a double double nightly. They’re in the top 5 in scoring defense, holding opponents to 85.6 points a game. They’ve scored two big upset wins over the Aces, one by 30 points, and are a competitive 5-6 against teams in the top 7 so far.
Reason to Doubt: Other than Sheppard they have zero presence in the paint. If she gets injured or in foul trouble they have no one who can consistently grab a rebound, block a shot, or score down low. Their second leading rebounder is is Paige with 3.8, the lowest of any team we’re considering here so far. The other thing is that despite their good scoring defense ranking they are the one of two teams under consideration that is outshot by their opponents, albeit by a thin 46.6% to 45.9% margin.
How to beat them: The jury is out now the Ionescu is back. Check back in a week or two.
- Best case scenario: They pull a first round upset before bowing out in the semifinals.
- Worst Case Scenario: their size deficiencies catch up with them and they go out early with a whimper
- Likely scenario: they make life tough for somebody in the first round before going down to defeat, but with the wrong matchup it could be over very fast.
Indiana Fever
Reason to Believe: They are first in the league in scoring with 93.9 points per game and third in the league in shooting at 47.2%. They have three All Stars in Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, any of whom could finish top 5 in the MVP voting if they were the first option in the offense every night. No lead is safe from the Fever. They score great in halfcourt sets and on fast breaks.
Reason to Doubt: No lead is safe with the Fever, either. They are prone to giving up big scoring runs after the first quarter no matter the opponent and have given up over 100 points 7 times, going 1-6 in those games. They are 12th in the league in scoring defense, giving up 90 points a game. If that’s not bad enough they only have one consistent scorer in the paint in Aliyah Boston, and if she gets hurt or in foul trouble they’re cooked.
How to beat them: Don’t stop attacking on offense. They pick up fouls easy and they give up runs. Even with their offense they can’t keep it up for the whole 40 minutes so just keep attacking until they hit a dry spell and you can either pull away or catch up. Stephanie White has a quick trigger finger on Clark and Boston’s minutes so get a couple of early fouls on them so she’ll be tempted to sit them down.
- Best case scenario: An exciting three games in the first round where they put a real scare in a top four seed.
- Worst Case Scenario: First round sweep where they give up over 100 both nights, causing the coach to get fired
- Likely scenario: First round loss
Stroke of Genius 