Who’s a real contender and who isn’t – WNBA Edition

Note: this is a living document that I will update as the season goes on. If the standings change significantly enough I’ll change the order to reflect that.

The All Stars have been announced, but what we really want to know is who’s gonna win it all? Who has a real chance and who just might be a fraud? There are seven teams that I think should definitely make the playoffs, but how far can they go? Here’s what I think based on where things stand right now.

Minnesota Lynx (26-7)

Reason to Believe: They are absolutely killing everybody right now. They’re outshooting their opponents 48% to 42% and outscoring them 92 to 83, but even crazier is that their average margin of victory is 13 points right now. They have four starters averaging in double figures, all averaging between 15 and 19 a game. Natasha Howard is playing like an All Star again, Olivia Miles has already locked up rookie of the year and now Napheesa Collier is back.

Reason to Doubt: There’s no way they can keep this up all year, right?  They were holding their opponents to 40 percent shooting through the first 24 games and now that’s crept up to 42; their margin of victory has also slid to 13 from 15 through the first 24 games. That’s an impossible feat for the rest of the season, especially with 9 games remaining against teams that are currently in the top 7 in scoring. I know I’m reaching here but work with me, people.

How to beat them: You can stand a chance if you shoot well, but that’s about it. Their offense is well balanced and their top four scorers don’t fluctuate much in their production from night to night. So hit your shots and pray.

• Best case scenario: They finally win that elusive championship for this group.
• Worst case scenario: They run out of gas in the Finals.
• Likely scenario: Collier is back now and in her first game didn’t miss a beat.  Yes they’re gonna have to work her all back in, but it’s hard to see anyone beating the team they have now.  They should be back in the finals and are likely winning.

Las Vegas Aces (22-10)

Reason to Believe: They brought everyone back from last year’s championship team, Aja Wilson is playing like her usual MVP self while Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are still producing at an All Star level. They’re also third in the league in scoring at 92, and first at shooting from the floor at 49.1%. They have a roster of stars and in a playoff series have three different places to turn for big performances when things get tough.

Reason to Doubt: Just like last year they are prone to inexplicably drop a stink bomb here and there. They opened the season with a 30 point blowout loss to Phoenix and followed a big win over first place Minnesota with another 30 points loss to Dallas. And just recently they followed a 50 point win against the Mercury with a 34 point loss to the Fever. And now they’re coming off a loss to the bottom rung Chicago Sky.

How to beat them: You can’t stop Aja but if you can keep her between 20 and 25 and keep everyone else down that’s good enough. Focus on Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young on defense; when they don’t shoot well the Aces are beatable by a good opponent.

• Best case scenario: Title number 4
• Worst case scenario: Someody figures out how to get the drop on them in the semifinals
• Likely scenario: Back in the finals, maybe winning

Golden State Valkyries (22-9)

Reason to believe: Defense, defense, defense. The Valkyries are first in scoring defense allowing 77.1 points per game and second in field goal defense at 42.6%. They’ve played a tough schedule, with 14 of their 26 games being against teams in the top 7, and went 8-6 against them.

Reason to doubt: As great as they are on defense, they are that bad on offense. They are the worst shooting team in the league at 42.1% and average 83.3 points on offense, good for 12th. They only have one reliable scorer in Gabby Williams, who made the All Star team as a starter, and only one other starter who even averages double figures. Their best shooter among their regular starters is shooting 44.2% from the floor, which is just yikes. Given how defenses tend to tighten up in in the playoffs they are ripe for a few games where they struggle to even hit 75 points.

How to beat them: Play hard on defense. That sounds like a no brainer but their scoring woes prevent them from running away with anything. They’re hard to score on but if you can keep them down, which is very doable given what we’ve seen so far, with you then you have a shot at breaking through in the second half and beating them.

• Best case scenario: They can make the Finals
• Worst case scenario: First round loss if a they get an opponent who can score just enough that they can’t reach them.
• Likely scenario: I’d say second round out. But they’re inability to score also makes them the easiest mark out of the top three.

Let me stop here to note that the standings have been really volatile from beyond this point. One week of games has been enough to rearrange everyone between fourth and seventh, and it’s likely to keep happening. Case in point, the Liberty were once solidly locked in at 4 and now they’ve slipped down to seventh and the Dream have gone from fourth to seventh and now back to fourth in like a three week span. So no, I’m not reordering the next few teams every time their positions change because if I just wait another week it’ll be right back to where it was when I first wrote this.

Dallas Wings (19-13)

Reason to Believe: They have a nice three guard lineup working with Paige, Arike, and Azzi while Jessica Shepard averages a double double nightly. They’re also one of the best teams in the league at not getting in foul trouble; they’re in the top 3 for fewest personal fouls per game and none of their regular starters averages more than 2.7 fouls a game.

Reason to Doubt: Other than Sheppard they have zero offensive presence in the paint. If she gets injured or in foul trouble they have no one who can consistently grab a rebound or score down low, and for all she does offensively she contributes nothing on defense.  Their second leading rebounder is is Paige with 4.2, the lowest second rebounder of any team we’re considering here so far. They are last in the league in free throw attempts, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs. Lastly, their roster depth is painfully thin; for all intents and purposes they have a 4 woman team and no one else has been consistently good enough to warrant regular minutes.

How to beat them: Punish them in the paint when you’re on offense and slow the game down. Arike and Azzi can be forced into bad shooting nights; Azzi has shot under 40% in 10 of her last 17 games and Arike is only shooting 38% for the season. They don’t get to the foul line much so it’s imperative that you hit yours to take advantage of that.

• Best case scenario: First round win.
• Worst Case Scenario: Their size and roster deficiencies catch up with them and they go out early with a whimper
• Likely scenario: They make life tough for somebody in the first round before going down to defeat, but with the wrong matchup it could be over very fast.

Atlanta Dream (19-12)

Reason to believe: The Dream are great at limiting shot opportunities and are second in for fewest shot attempts against per game with 63.2. Led by Angel Reese they are first in the league in offensive rebounds and second in shot attempts per game. They’re also great at getting to the line, second in the league with 24.6 free throw attempts a game. They have two All Star guards and an All Star forward/center in Reese. They’ve played a tough schedule, with 12 of their 25 games being against teams in the top 7.

Reason to doubt: While they have a good scoring defense, fourth in the league with 85.7 points per game, they have a bad shooting defense that’s last in the league allowing 48.3% shooting from their opponents, including 37.5% from 3 which is also last. In other words, if you get a shot off against them it’s probably going in. They’re a bad shooting team themselves, too – 11th in the league with 43.8%, and their best shooting starter only hits at 47.2%. Getting outshot like every night is a recipe for hard times against better opponents.

How to beat them: Slow the game down and make them score in the halfcourt. Reese and Rhyne Howard are not good shooters and Reese is good for at least one offensive foul a game. On offense move the ball around and get good shots; they’re much better at keeping you from getting a shot off than causing you to miss them.

• Best case scenario: If matched against the right opponent (Wings, Valkyries) they can win in the first round
• Worst case scenario: Swept in the first round
• Likely scenario: If they can finish at fourth or fifth in the standings they can win a round. Any lower than that and it’s gonna be a quick playoff.

Indiana Fever (20-12)

Reason to Believe: They are first in the league in scoring with 95.9 points per game and second in the league in shooting at 48.5%. They have three All Stars in Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, any of whom could finish top 5 in the MVP voting if they were the first option in the offense every night. They can go on a run against anyone; no lead is safe from the Fever. They score great in halfcourt sets and on fast breaks.

Reason to Doubt: No lead is safe with the Fever, either. They are prone to giving up big scoring runs after the first quarter no matter the opponent and have given up over 100 points 7 times, going 2-5 in those games. They are 12th in the league in scoring defense, giving up 90.4 points a game. If that’s not bad enough they only have one consistent scorer in the paint in Aliyah Boston, and if she gets hurt or in foul trouble they’re cooked. Their remaining schedule is tough, with 11 games against team that are current playoff qualifiers.

How to beat them: Don’t stop attacking on offense. They pick up fouls easy and they give up runs. Even with their offense they can’t keep it up for the whole 40 minutes so just keep attacking until they hit a dry spell and you can either pull away or catch up. Clark and Mitchell are never going to be mistaken for Isaiah Thomas and Joe Dumars on defense; they’re more like Kenny Anderson and Drazen Petrovic (RIP) with the Nets back in the 90s.

• Best case scenario: A first round series win.
• Worst Case Scenario: First round sweep where they give up over 100 both nights, causing the coach to get fired.
• Likely scenario: First round loss but if they get the right opponent (Valkyries, Dream) they can win a round.

Washington Mystics (18-12)

Reason to believe: They have the second best center/power forward combo in the league in Shakira Austin and Kiki Irafen, both averaging 15 points and 9 rebounds a game and an All Star guard in Sonia Citron. They are one of the toughest defensive teams in the league, holding opponents to a second best 83.2 points a game and 42.5% shooting, and just held the high scoring Wings to 75 points. They lead the league in free throw attempts also.

Reason to doubt: Despite having three players getting over 15 a game and an All Star guard, they are a terrible offensive team overall. Currently they are 12th in shooting at 43.4% and 14th in scoring at 81.7. They’re also last in 3 point shooting at 29% and last in turnovers. They’re the only playoff qualifying team with a negative point differential so if you’re up on them in the second half, you’ve got them.

How to beat them: Keep it close and give it to your stars late.

• Best case scenario: First round upset if they get the right opponent (Valkyries, Wings, Fever)
• Worst case scenario: Swept in the first round
• Likely scenario: They’re going to give the Lynx or Aces two or three really tough games in the first round. If they can get into the fifth or sixth seed they can absolutely send someone home early.

New York Liberty (19-13)

Reason to believe: After a 3-4 start they won 8 in a row and now they have Sabrina Ionescu back. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are still doing what they do at MVP and All Star level we know them for, respectively, and they’ve gotten some good production out of Marine Johanes, who was filling in for Sabrina, and offseason pickup Pauline Astier. When they have their full lineup playing every night, which looks to finally be the case, they’re loaded with 4 All Stars and some other good players. From a pure talent standpoint they can match up with anyone. Right now they’ve won 6 of their last 7 and are surging again.

Reason to doubt: There are a lot of nights where they just look bad. Statistically they are in or close to the middle of the pack in everything. After they recovered from the 3-4 start they went 2-8 to fall from 11-4 to 13-12. A 3-4 start and a 2-8 stretch don’t bode well for making a long playoff run.

How to beat them: They’re pretty good at a lot of things but great at nothing this year, so anyone can have a good night on them even if they’re a bad team.

• Best case scenario: Semifinals
• Worst case scenario: First round loss
• Likely scenario: Given the way they’ve fallen in the standings to eighth place it’s very likely they end up having to face the Lynx in the first round. If that happens, pack it up folks.

Conclusions

That’s what I’m seeing as of right now. I’ll update this if anything radically changes but as it stands today I’d call it like this:

• Title contenders: Lynx, Aces
• Could reach the Finals: Valkyries
• Hoping to get it together for a run: Liberty
• There to have a good time and grow together: Wings, Dream, Fever
• Team nobody wants to see in the first round: Mystics

Looking at the last 10 years of history one thing that jumps out is that the regular seaaon standings are almost perfect for predicting the champs.  9 out of the last 10 champs have finished no worse than second in the league standings and 6 out of 10 finished first.  So with that in mind if we’re gonna keep it real for a minute….the topsy turvy nature of spots 4 through 7 means that those teams just aren’t good enough to be real contenders and will all have stretches of games where their weaknesses get exposed.  Those kind of teams just can’t be trusted. With the right opponent they can win in the first round; a three game series is ripe for upsets with the 1-1-1 format. But they could just as easily get swept in the first round with the wrong opponent or one who just locks in early. Strength of schedule is going to be big factor here. The Dream, Wings, Liberty and Mystics all have remaining schedules of opponents with combined records under .500, while the Fever’s opponents have a combined .527 winning percentage.  When it’s all said and done there’s not telling what fourth through seventh is gonna look like. 

The Lynx are the overwhelming favorite right now. I checked the last 10 champions rankings in several offensive and defensive categories and the Lynx rank highly in all the ones that matter the most. They’re also the only team in the league this year whose point differential (+8.6) lines up with most previous champs. And that was before Napheesa Collier came back. It’s very possible that they have a playoff run similar to the Fo-Fo-Fo Philadelphia 76ers or the 15-2 inaugural Chicago Bulls title team. The Aces are the only team with the talent, pedigree and quality of play at both ends to really challenge them. Everyone is lacking heavy in some kind of way on offense (Golden State, Washington) or defense (Dallas, Indiana, Atlanta) or still finding their way altogether (New York).