Note: this is a living document that I will update as the season goes on. If the standings change significantly enough I’ll change the order to reflect that.
The All Stars have been announced, but what we really want to know is who’s gonna win it all? Who has a real chance and who just might be a fraud? There are seven teams that I think should definitely make the playoffs, but how far can they go? Here’s what I think based on where things stand right now.
Minnesota Lynx (31-9, 14-6 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to Believe: They are absolutely killing everybody right now. They’re outshooting their opponents 48% to 43% and outscoring them 91 to 83. Their starting five all averages in double figures, each scoring between 15 and 19 a game. Natasha Howard is playing like an All Star again, Olivia Miles has already locked up rookie of the year and now Napheesa Collier is back. Every member of their current starting five has made the All Star Team within the last two years.
Reason to Doubt: There’s no way they can keep this up all year, right? I mean seriously, 44 games and the playoffs, of this? Just can’t happen, right? I know I’m reaching here but work with me, people.
How to beat them: You need a miracle. In all 7 of their losses they had a bad shooting quarter or a bad shooting night; you basically have to play your best and then catch them on a bad night.
- Best case scenario: They finally win that elusive championship for this group.
- Worst case scenario: Somebody gets the drop on them in the first round and takes advantage of the two out of three format.
- Likely scenario: It’s hard to see anyone winning three out of five or four out of seven against them.
Golden State Valkyries (29-11, 14-8 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to believe: Defense, defense, defense. The Valkyries are first in scoring defense allowing 75.4 points per game and field goal defense at 41.8%.
Reason to doubt: As great as they are on defense, they are that bad on offense. They are the worst shooting team in the league at 42.5% and average 82.5 points on offense, good for 13th. They only have one reliable scorer in Gabby Williams, who made the All Star team as a starter, and only one other starter who even averages double figures. Their best shooter among their regular starters is shooting 43.5% from the floor, which is just yikes. Given how defenses tend to tighten up in in the playoffs they are ripe for a few games where they struggle to even hit 75 points.
How to beat them: Play hard on defense. That sounds like a no brainer but their scoring woes prevent them from running away with anything. They’re hard to score on but if you can keep them down, which is very doable, then you have a shot at breaking through in the second half and beating them.
- Best case scenario: They can make the Semifinals
- Worst case scenario: First round sweep.
- Likely scenario: They are officially on Fraud Watch. The first round format gives them a chance but they could just as easily get run out of town in two games. When you’re as bad as they are on offense anyone can beat you.
Las Vegas Aces (27-13, 11-10 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to Believe: They brought everyone back from last year’s championship team, Aja Wilson is playing like her usual MVP self while Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are still producing at an All Star level. They’re also fourth in the league in scoring at 90.6, and third at shooting from the floor at 48.2%. They have a roster of stars and in a playoff series have three different places to turn for big performances when things get tough.
Reason to Doubt: Just like last year they are prone to inexplicably drop a stink bomb here and there. They opened the season with a 30 point blowout loss to Phoenix and followed a big win over first place Minnesota with another 30 points loss to Dallas. And they followed a 50 point win against the Mercury with a 34 point loss to the Fever. And now they’re another player short with NaLyssa Smith being out for the season.
How to beat them: You can’t stop Aja but if you can keep her between 20 and 25, hold her under 50% shooting and keep everyone else down that’s enough. Focus on Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young on defense; when they don’t shoot well the Aces are beatable by a good opponent.
- Best case scenario: Title number 4
- Worst case scenario: They lay an egg in one first round game then their opponent gets the second win outright to send them home
- Likely scenario: Out in the second round at best. Without Smith it’s going to be tough to beat anyone in a three out of five scenario; they’re now down to their three All Stars and a bunch of gals and the dynamic of them vs. anyone with a similar setups is completely changed.
Indiana Fever (26-14, 9-11 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to Believe: They are first in the league in scoring with 97 points per game and lead in the league in shooting at 49.2%. They have three All Stars in Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, any of whom could finish top 5 in the MVP voting if they were the first option in the offense every night. They can go on a run against anyone; no lead is safe from the Fever. They score great in halfcourt sets and on fast breaks.
Reason to Doubt: No lead is safe with the Fever, either. They are prone to giving up big scoring runs after the first quarter no matter the opponent and have given up over 100 points 10 times, going 2-8 in those games. They are 12th in the league in scoring defense, giving up 91 points a game. If that’s not bad enough they only have one consistent scorer in the paint in Aliyah Boston, and if she gets hurt or in foul trouble they’re cooked. Their remaining schedule is tough, with 3 out of 4 games against teams that are current playoff qualifiers.
How to beat them: Do everything you can to disrupt Clark when they’re on offense. If she’s able to flow freely and go crazy they can beat anyone. They can still function if Mitchell is having an off night but if you disrupt Clark then it doesn’t matter how many points Mitchell puts up on you. The recent games against Minnesota and Dallas are ample evidence of that. When you’re on offense just keep attacking until they hit a dry spell and you can catch or go ahead.
- Best case scenario: They can get to the Finals if they can avoid Minnesota until then.
- Worst Case Scenario: First round loss.
- Likely scenario: They can win a round; from there it depends on the opponent.
Atlanta Dream (26-14, 9-11 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to believe: The Dream are great at limiting shot opportunities and are second in for fewest shot attempts against per game with 64.7. Led by Angel Reese they are first in the league in offensive rebounds and second in shot attempts per game. They’re also great at getting to the line, second in the league with 24.9 free throw attempts a game. They have two All Star guards and an All Star forward/center in Reese. They’ve played a tough schedule, with 12 of their first 25 games being against teams in the top 7.
Reason to doubt: While they have a good scoring defense, fifth in the league with 85.7 points per game, they have a bad shooting defense that’s last in the league allowing 47.5% shooting from their opponents, including 36.5% from 3 which is also last. In other words, if you get a shot off against them it’s probably going in. They’re a bad shooting team themselves, too – 12th in the league with 43.9%, and two of their three biggest scorers regularly struggle to crack 40%. Getting outshot almost every night is a recipe for hard times against better opponents.
How to beat them: Slow the game down and make them score in the halfcourt. Reese and Rhyne Howard are not good shooters, and Reese is good for at least one offensive foul turnover a game. On offense move the ball around and get good shots; they’re much better at keeping you from getting a shot off than causing you to miss them.
- Best case scenario: If matched against the right opponent they can win in the first round
- Worst case scenario: Swept in the first round
- Likely scenario: If they can finish at fourth or fifth in the standings they can win a round. Any lower than that and it’s gonna be a quick playoff.
New York Liberty (24-16, 10-10 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to believe: After a 3-4 start they won 8 in a row and now they have Sabrina Ionescu back. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are still doing what they do at MVP and All Star level we know them for, respectively, and they’ve gotten some good production out of Marine Johanes, who was filling in for Sabrina, and offseason pickup Pauline Astier. When they have their full lineup playing every night, which looks to finally be the case, they’re loaded with 4 All Stars and some other good players including Leonie Fiebich who just returned and provided some crucial points and defense in a win over the Fever. From a pure talent standpoint they can match up with anyone. Right now they’ve won 10 of their last 14 and are surging again.
Reason to doubt: There are a lot of nights where they just look bad. Statistically they are in or close to the middle of the pack in everything and great at noting. After they recovered from the 3-4 start they went 2-8 to fall from 11-4 to 13-12. A 3-4 start and a 2-8 stretch don’t bode well for making a long playoff run. Sabrina Ionescu has been ‘one night she’s good, the next night she isn’t’ all season long.
How to beat them: They’re pretty good at a lot of things but great at nothing this year, so anyone can have a good night on them.
- Best case scenario: Back to the finals
- Worst case scenario: First round loss
- Likely scenario: Now that Vegas is short one starter, that matchup doesn’t look as daunting in the first round should it happen. In fact, I’d pick them to win it. So semifinals at least; with Fiebich back they are getting healthy at the right time and are much better than their current position in standings. They have the size to give everyone fits, so anything is possible in the first two rounds. They’ve gone from Fraud Watch to Dark Horse.
Washington Mystics (24-16, 9-11 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to believe: They have the second best center/power forward combo in the league in Shakira Austin and Kiki Irafen, both averaging 15 points and 9 rebounds a game and an All Star guard in Sonia Citron. They are one of the toughest defensive teams in the league, holding opponents to a second best 83 points a game and 42.7% shooting. They are also second the league in free throw attempts per game.
Reason to doubt: Despite having three players getting over 15 a game and an All Star guard, they are a terrible offensive team overall. They badly need some type of point guard to direct the offense, and it’s glaring when you watch them play. Currently they are 14th in scoring at 82.8 points a game. They’re also 14th in 3 point shooting at 30.0% and last in turnovers. They’re the only playoff qualifying team with a negative point differential so if you’re up on them in the second half, you’ve got them.
How to beat them: Keep it close and give it to your stars late.
- Best case scenario: First round upset if they get the right opponent
- Worst case scenario: Swept in the first round
- Likely scenario: They’ll give someone a tough time in the first round
Dallas Wings (24-16, 7-15 vs Playoff Teams)
Reason to Believe: Even after Azzi Fudd’s season ending injury they have two All-Star guards in Paige and Arike while Jessica Shepard averages a double double nightly. They’re also one of the best teams in the league at not getting in foul trouble; they’re fourth for fewest personal fouls per game and none of their regular starters averages more than 2.7 fouls a game.
Reason to Doubt: Other than Sheppard they have zero offensive presence in the paint. If she gets injured or in foul trouble they have no one who can consistently score down low, and for all she does offensively she contributes nothing on defense. They are next to last in the league in free throw attempts, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs. They are an abysmal 7-15 vs playoff qualifying teams, which puts them on Fraud Watch in the postseason.
How to beat them: Punish them in the paint when you’re on offense and slow the game down. Arike can be forced into bad shooting nights is only shooting 39% for the season. She had Paige are not good defenders either, and can be barbecue chicken on any given night. They don’t get to the foul line much so it’s imperative that you hit yours to take advantage of that.
- Best case scenario: Assuming they remain the eighth seed, a first round upset.
- Worst Case Scenario: Minnesota kills them dead in two games
- Likely scenario: If they get out of the eighth seed they can make things hard for somebody or even score an upset. If not, they’re dead meat.
Conclusions
That’s what I’m seeing as of right now. I’ll update this if anything radically changes but as it stands today I’d call it like this:
- Title contenders: Lynx
- Could reach the Finals: Fever, Liberty
- Dreams Dashed: Aces
- Could win a round: Dream
- Fraud Alert: Valkyries
- There to have a good time and grow together: Wings, Mystics
Looking at the last 10 years of history one thing that jumps out is that the regular seaaon standings are almost perfect for predicting the champs. 9 out of the last 10 champs have finished no worse than second in the league standings and 6 out of 10 finished first. The Lynx are the overwhelming favorite right now, and that was before Napheesa Collier came back. It’s very possible that they have a playoff run similar to the Fo-Fo-Fo Philadelphia 76ers or the 15-2 inaugural Chicago Bulls title team. Everyone is lacking heavy in some kind of way on offense (Atlanta, Golden State, Washington) or defense (Dallas, Indiana) or depth (Las Vegas).
Stroke of Genius 