Note: this will be continually updated until the end of the season.
Who’s the MVP this year? If you ask some people the answer is obvious but the winner is rarely unanimous; in fact only once in the last 10 years has there been a unanimous winner. So since some other people are going to get some votes I thought I’d look at all the people who I thought were not crazy to consider – meaning that if their team were to campaign for them to win it you could understand. If you have a winning team that’s going to the playoffs and you have one or more players putting up big numbers then hell yes you should put their hat in the ring. It’s pretty obvious that those numbers are a big reason why you’re winning so they are indeed quite valuable. Now it’s hard to assign an actual percentage of value that one player has unless there’s some clear evidence like the team losing any game they don’t play in so we rely heavily on numbers. Which is what I’m doing here. And like a lot of numbers nerds out there I have my own wacky method for looking at stats and determining things.
I have what I call the NODE method for analyzing stats, NODE being short for NO DErivatives. I’ve always believed that you can glean whatever information for need about performances in sports from the basic stats that were traditionally measured. I could go on a long rant about advanced analytics but I’ll save it for another time, just know that I hate them all.
Here’s my NODE formula:
(Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals + Field Goal% + 3 Point%) – Turnovers = NODE
You just add up the good stuff, throw in the shooting percentages, and subtract the bad thing. I looked at the last ten MVPs for some historical context, and compared their NODE score to the rest of the top 5 vote getters for that year and here’s what I found:
| Year | MVP | NODE total | NODE rank out of finalists | NODE rank out of the league |
| 2025 | Aja Wilson | 39.3 | 1st | 1st |
| 2024 | Aja Wilson | 45.0 | 1st | 1st |
| 2023 | Breanna Stewart | 38.5 | 1st | 1st |
| 2022 | Aja Wilson | 33.5 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2021 | Jonquel Jones | 34.0 | 3rd | 3rd |
| 2020 | Aja Wilson | 33.1 | 1st | 1st |
| 2019 | Elena Della Donne | 31.7 | 1st | 1st |
| 2018 | Breanna Stewart | 34.6 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2017 | Sylvia Fowles | 32.4 | 1st | 3rd |
| 2016 | Nneka Ogwumike | 33.6 | 2nd | 2nd |
So over the last 10 years the MVP winner finished:
- First in NODE among the top 5 vote getters 6 times (60%)
- First in NODE for the entire league 5 times (50%)
- No lower than third among the top vote getters or the entire league every year
Also every year exactly either 3 or 4 of the league’s top 5 NODE scorers finish in the top 5 vote getters for MVP, and 70% of the top 5 in NODE also finished in the top 5 in the voting.
Historical Data
There are several patterns and precedents that have been set, that can inform us today. Here they are:
- No MVP in the last 10 years has been on a team that finished worse than fourth in the standings
- Six of the last 10 MVPs have been on teams that finished first, but none since 2022
- Only one top 5 vote getter in the last 10 years has missed the playoffs
- Every MVP in the last 10 years has finished in the top 5 in the league in at least two categories
- Only 3 MVPs in the last 10 years have led the league in anything
- Only one rookie (Candace Parker) and only two pure guards (Cynthia Cooper and Diana Taurasi) have won it
- Only 3 times in the past 10 years have two teammates finished in the top 5 vote getters, but two of those 3 did win the award
So what’s it look like this year?
Here’s the top 5 in NODE for 2026 as of August 20:
- Aja Wilson: 40.8
- Breanna Stewart: 33.2
- Caitlin Clark: 31.7
- Olivia Miles: 30.6
- Paige Bueckers: 30.2
Based on history one or two of them won’t finish in the top 5. Stewart isn’t being mentioned at all as of late and her team is in seventh place right now so she’s the most likely to not make the final 5. Based on the chatter out there I think she’ll be the only one to not make it while Kelsey is almost guaranteed to be the one outside the top 5 NODE scorers who breaks the top 5 vote getters.
Let’s look at each candidate individually, both for the year to date and since the All Star Break (the second row with the *)
Aja Wilson
| Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE | |
| 2026 | 26.1 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 51.9 | 40.8 |
| 2026* | 26.2 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 50.7 | 41.0 |
Why yes: Aja is still the best player in the league and has maintained the pace that has her far ahead of everyone else statistically. She’s first in the league in scoring and blocks for the third straight year and in the top five in rebounding for the fifth straight year. If it’s as simple as best stats + winning for you then Aja is the obvious choice.
Why not: Well, the Aces are 6-4 in games she’s played since the All Star break, slipped from vying for first at midseason to fighting to hold on for third, and they just lost back to back games to the Lynx and Dream. Other than that……..I got nothing. The only reason to not vote for her is her team’s record, and while she had subpar games in two of those losses I don’t think you can pin her team’s record on her.
Verdict: She has a 7 point lead in NODE over everyone else and her team is flipping between third and fourth place every night. In 2024 she had a 9 point NODE margin and her team finished fourth in the standings….and she won MVP. History is on her side – top 4 in standings, top 5 in multiple categories, not a rookie or a guard – so unless she totally tanks the rest of the way or the Aces fall off a cliff in the standings all the evidence points to her winning again.
Olivia Miles
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 19.9 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 50.3 | 30.6 |
| 2026* | 21.4 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 53.7 | 32.0 |
Why yes: Statistically she’s having the second best season ever for a rookie point guard and may finish with the best ever at the end. She went to a team that finished in first place last season but was starting without it’s leader, perennial MVP candidate Napheesa Collier. Having to step in and lead from day one, she’s helped keep them in first place all season this year by leading them in points and assists and making the All Star team.
Why not: Statistically she isn’t in the top five in any traditional category (points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals) while Aja, Caitlin, and Mitchell are all in the top 5 in at least one thing. And based on recent precedent Clark’s rookie season, where she led the led the league in assists, led all guards in rebounding and took the Fever to the playoffs after they went 13-27 the year before she got there, was not good enough to win her the MVP so why would this season get it for Miles?
Verdict: There some clear parallels between Olivia and Clark’s rookie seasons right down to their NODE scores – Clark finished with 30.5 while Miles is sitting on 30.6 right now. Clark took a team that was 13-27 the year before to a sixth seed and playoff berth, Miles kept a team that was first in first. Clark finished fourth in the MVP voting that year, so that would predicate Miles finishing a spot or two above that, which landing her at second or third. And right now she’s sitting at fourth in NODE score so she’s outside the range of winners. The one thing she has going for her is Minnesota’s almost guaranteed first place finish in the standings. All in all her winning MVP would be a statistical anomaly and a historic exception.
Caitlin Clark
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 22.1 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 44.9 | 31.7 |
| 2026* | 24.9 | 3.9 | 9.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 49.2 | 35.5 |
Why yes: She’s been on a tear since the All-Star break, going up or staying even in every category from before the break. The Fever are 7-2 since then and just beat the Wings and Dream back to back, buoyed by a 29 point/10 assist game from Clark followed by a 26 point/9 assist performance. Earlier this season she had a 45 point, 10 assist game and leads all guards in double doubles for the season. She’s third in scoring and first assists as of today. She’s also got a triple double this season and is on the verge of being the only player in league history to average 20 points and 8 assists for a whole season. She’s was Player of the Month for June and a four time Player of the Week so the numbers and the accolades are there.
Why no: She didn’t shoot well in May, Aja is a better player, and the Fever are only in third place. That’s it. No, none of that other stuff you’re thinking of matters.
Verdict: As a guard she’s swimming against the tide of history just like Miles, and she has a teammate likely to finish in the top 5. She does have a few favorable factors: she is in the league top five in two categories, and looks like her team will finish in the top 4 in the standings, she’s third in NODE. She’s highly unlikely to win it but a third place finish is in range.
Kelsey Mitchell
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 24.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 50.7 | 28.9 |
| 2026* | 27.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 53.3 | 32.1 |
Why yes: She’s second in the league in scoring, has scored at least 20 points in 17 straight games, is shooting over 50% from the floor, and is averaging a career high 24 points a games. Since the All Star break it’s jumped to 27 to lead the league.
Why no: She is a one dimensional player. That dimension happens to be scoring so it stands out more, but if she averaged 12 assists or 12 rebounds but only 4 or 5 points then no one would be considering her for anything here.
Verdict: She’s the NODE outlier. No one who’s finished this far outside the top 5 NODE for the league has ever won; they usually finish fourth or fifth save for Jonquel Jones third place finish in 2019. Then there’s her position (guard), top five categories (only one), and the teammate factor (Clark). In her favor are the team standings (likely third or fourth). The ceiling for Kelsey is third.
Paige Bueckers
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 20.5 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 50.5 | 30.3 |
| 2026* | 19.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 47.8 | 27.7 |
Paige was a real contender earlier in the season but the Wings have gone 2-7 since the All Star Break and her numbers are slightly down since then, too. Her team is eighth and likely stuck there barring a miracle turnaround, she isn’t in the top 5 in anything, and she’s a guard. She’s 5th in NODE as of today so she’s still a likely top 5 vote getter barring a total collapse late.
Is there anyone who might break through?
Yes! Angel Reese has a NODE score of 30.2, which ties her with Paige for fifth. Her team is fifth in the standings and she’s in the top 5 in two categories. And she’s a big. If anyone can get into the top who isn’t already being mentioned it’s her. Breanna Stewart has the league’s second highest NODE score but is short on top fives (just one category) and her team is currently mired in seventh place. If they can get to sixth she has a chance of cracking the top five.
So what’s the current tally look like?
| Top team? | Top 4 Team? | League Leader? | League Top 5s? | Top 3 NODE score? | |
| Wilson | x | 2 | 3 | x | |
| Miles | x | x | |||
| Clark | x | 1 | 2 | x | |
| Mitchell | x | 1 | |||
| Bueckers | |||||
| Reese | x | 1 | 1 | ||
| Stewart | 1 | x |
If we’re going off of historical statistical precedents and inclue my wacky point system, the final MVP voting would look like this:
- Wilson (2 leads + 3 top 5s + 1 Yes/No) = 6
- Clark (1 lead + 2 top 5s + 1 Yes/No) = 4
- Reese (1 lead + 1 top 5s + 1 Yes/No) = 3
- Miles (0 leads + 0 top 5s + 2 Yes/No) = 2
- Mitchell (0 leads + 1 top 5 + 1 Yes/No) = 2
- Stewart (0 leads + 1 top 5 + 1 Yes/No) = 2
- Bueckers (0 leads + 0 top 5 + 0 Yes/No) = 0
This looks insane next to all the chatter we’ve been hearing all season, I know. Can it be explained? I’ll try.
- Aja is…..Aja.
- Clark, despite her early season shooting struggles is the top point generator in the league and a multidimensional threat who has gone on some insane runs and broken a lot of offensive records on a team that now sits in the top four.
- Reese isn’t talked about much because her team is perpetually in the middle of the pack and quite frankly her style of play doesn’t lend itself to highlight reels, but she’s quietly having one of the better all around seasons in the league.
- Miles is a victim of her teammates being so good; in addition to her the Minnesota has two 2026 All Stars and two other 2025 All Stars, one of whom (Collier) is a perennial MVP finalist and the other (Kayla McBride) who is having a better year this year than when she was an All Star last year. This does a whammy on her stats – she’d score more on a team where she had fewer All Star teammates but her assists and shooting percentages would be lower.
- Mitchell is really great at one thing, and is on a top four team, but being great at only one thing puts her way behind the statistical 8 ball.
- Stewart is on a seventh place team and is good but not great statistically for this exercise
- Paige just doesn’t hit on anything – statistically or in wins and losses – to qualify for anything here
Now the final voting isn’t just going to be based on stats or wins so the final order is going to be different than this. Feelings, vibes, and narratives play a role no matter how much people deny it. Judging by the chatter I’ve seen all season it’s still Aja’s to win but Olivia is getting a lot of love based on Minnesota being first and her being the new phenomenon. As for the rest it really depends on how much Clark’s early shooting woes and all the negative press surrounding her affects the voters moods, and whether or not everything from June forward will make them reconsider. If yes, she can finish as high as third but if not she’s likely doomed to fifth. Many who cover the league and a vocal part of the longtime fanbase still treat her like being forced to eat their vegetables – they’re good for you like she’s been good for business but they still don’t like them for reasons, some understandable and some absolutely absurd.
Anyway, we’ll see how the real thing turns out but this is how my wacky projections look right now.
Stroke of Genius 