Note: this will be continually updated until the end of the season. I won’t always get to it every day, but please bear with me as I have no staff other than me.
Who’s the MVP this year? If you ask some people the answer is obvious but the winner is rarely unanimous; in fact only once in the last 10 years has there been a unanimous winner. So since some other people are going to get some votes I thought I’d look at all the people who I thought were not crazy to consider – meaning that if their team were to campaign for them to win it you could understand. If you have a winning team that’s going to the playoffs and you have one or more players putting up big numbers then hell yes you should put their hat in the ring. It’s pretty obvious that those numbers are a big reason why you’re winning so they are indeed quite valuable. Now it’s hard to assign an actual percentage of value that one player has unless there’s some clear evidence like the team losing any game they don’t play in so we rely heavily on numbers. Which is what I’m doing here. And like a lot of numbers nerds out there I made up my own wacky method for looking at stats and determining things. I call it the NODE method.
NODE is short for NO DErivatives. I’ve always believed that you can glean whatever information for need about performances in sports from the basic stats that were traditionally measured. I could go on a long rant about advanced analytics but I’ll save it for another time, just know that I hate them all.
Here’s my NODE formula:
(Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals + Field Goal% + 3 Point%) – Turnovers = NODE
You just add up the good stuff, throw in the shooting percentages, and subtract the bad thing.
For refence I looked up the top five MVP vote getters over the last 10 years, the top 5 NODE scores in the league for those 10 years, last ten MVPs, and all the previous winners in league history. Here’s what the last 10 winners looked vs the other top vote getters and the league as a whole:
| Year | MVP | NODE total | NODE rank out of finalists | NODE rank out of the league |
| 2025 | Aja Wilson | 39.3 | 1st | 1st |
| 2024 | Aja Wilson | 45.0 | 1st | 1st |
| 2023 | Breanna Stewart | 38.5 | 1st | 1st |
| 2022 | Aja Wilson | 33.5 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2021 | Jonquel Jones | 34.0 | 3rd | 3rd |
| 2020 | Aja Wilson | 33.1 | 1st | 1st |
| 2019 | Elena Della Donne | 31.7 | 1st | 1st |
| 2018 | Breanna Stewart | 34.6 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2017 | Sylvia Fowles | 32.4 | 1st | 3rd |
| 2016 | Nneka Ogwumike | 33.6 | 2nd | 2nd |
So over the last 10 years the MVP winner finished:
- First in NODE among the top 5 vote getters 6 times (60%)
- First in NODE for the entire league 5 times (50%)
- No lower than third among the top vote getters or the entire league every year
- Had a NODE score of at least 31.745
And over the last 10 years leaguewide:
- Either 3 or 4 of the league’s top 5 NODE scorers finished in the top 5 vote getters for MVP
- 70% of the top 5 in NODE also finished in the top 5 in the voting.
Historical Data
There are several patterns and precedents that have been set, that can inform us today. Here they are:
- No MVP in the last 10 years has been on a team that finished worse than fourth in the standings
- Six of the last 10 MVPs have been on teams that finished first, but none since 2022
- Only one top 5 vote getter in the last 10 years has missed the playoffs
- Every MVP in the last 10 years has finished in the top 5 in the league in at least two categories
- 5 MVPs in the last 10 years have led the league in one of the five basic categories
- Only one rookie (Candace Parker) and only two pure guards (Cynthia Cooper and Diana Taurasi) have won it
- Only 3 MVPs have finished with a NODE score under 30
- Only 3 times in the past 10 years (9 times in league history) have two teammates finished in the top 5 vote getters, but two of those 3 did win the award
So what’s it look like this year?
Here’s the top 5 in NODE for 2026 as of August 29:
- Aja Wilson: 40.4
- Breanna Stewart: 33.2
- Caitlin Clark: 32.5
- Angel Reese: 31.3
- Paige Bueckers: 30.5
Based on history one or two of them won’t finish in the top 5; neither Stewart or Reese’s names are being mentioned at all in any MVP conversations I’ve seen so they’re the two most likely candidates here.
But since they statistically fit the profile and their teams in the playoff hunt I’m going to look at them, too. Here are the NODES for everyone I think should be in the discussion, both for the season to date and since the All Star Break (the second row with the *)
Aja Wilson
| Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE | |
| 2026 | 26.0 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 52.3 | 40.4 |
| 2026* | 25.8 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 52.3 | 40.0 |
Why yes: Aja is still the best player in the league and has maintained the pace that has her far ahead of everyone else statistically. She’s first in the league in scoring and blocks for the third straight year and in the top five in rebounding for the fifth straight year. If it’s as simple as best stats + winning for you then Aja is the obvious choice. We really do take her for granted; when has a 26 point scorer who also leads the league in blocks and is a top 5 rebounder not been the obvious choice? We’re in Michael Jordan territory here where people are cooking up reasons to not vote for her again and just missing the obvious.
Why not: I got nothing. The only reason to not vote for her is her team’s record and place in the standings, and while she had subpar games in two of those losses I don’t think you can pin her team’s record on her.
Verdict: She has a 7 point lead in NODE over everyone else and her team is in third pace. In 2024 she had a 9 point NODE margin and her team finished fourth in the standings….and she won MVP. History is on her side – top 4 in standings, top 5 in multiple categories, not a rookie or a guard, one of only three candidates with a NODE currently over 31.75 – so unless she totally tanks the rest of the way or the Aces fall off a cliff in the standings all the evidence points to her winning it again.
Olivia Miles
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 19.7 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 49.5 | 30.0 |
| 2026* | 20.5 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 50.4 | 30.3 |
Why yes: Statistically she’s having the second best season ever for a rookie point guard and may finish with the best ever at the end. She went to a team that finished in first place last season but had some major roster turnover was starting the season without it’s leader, perennial MVP candidate Napheesa Collier. Having to step in and lead from day one, she’s helped keep them in first place all season this year by leading them in points and assists and making the All Star team.
Why not: Statistically she isn’t in the top five in any traditional category (points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals) while Aja, Caitlin, Mitchell, and Angel Reese are all in the top 5 in at least one thing. Based on recent precedent Clark’s rookie season, where she led the led the league in assists, led all guards in rebounding and took the Fever to the playoffs after they went 13-27 the year before she got there, was not enough to win her MVP so why would this season get it for Miles?
Verdict: There some clear parallels between Olivia and Clark’s rookie seasons right down to their NODE scores – Clark finished with 30.5 while Miles is sitting on 30.2 right now. Clark finished fourth in the MVP voting that year, and had the fifth highest NODE score in the league. All in all Miles winning MVP would be a statistical anomaly and a historic exception. That doesn’t mean she won’t win, or that she shouldn’t win, but just that it defies all precedents.
Caitlin Clark
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 22.5 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 45.6 | 32.5 |
| 2026* | 25.1 | 3.9 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 48.9 | 36.2 |
Why yes: She’s been on a tear since the All-Star break, going up or staying even in every category from before the break. The Fever are 9-4 since then while Clark has put up a 29 point/10 assist game, followed by a 26 point/9 assist performance, a 37/10 game and a 34/10 game. (She’s the first player in league history to have back to back 30 point/10 assist games). Before the break she had a 45 point, 10 assist game (the only one in the history of the league) and was Player of the Month for June. She’s third in scoring and first assists as of today. She’s also got a triple double this season and is on the verge of being the only player in league history to average over 20 points and 8 assists for a whole season. She’s a four time Player of the Week this season so the numbers and the accolades are there.
Why no: She didn’t shoot well in May, Aja is a better player, and has a teammate that’s going to split some of the vote with her. That’s it. No, none of that other stuff you’re thinking about matters. Especially not the turnovers (go look at the all time and yearly leaders in turnovers for both the NBA and WNBA, then tell me how much it matters).
Verdict: As a guard she’s swimming against the tide of history just like Miles, and she has a teammate likely to finish in the top 5. She does have a couple of favorable factors: she is in the league top five in two categories, and she’s third in NODE. She’s unlikely to win it but a third place finish is in range.
Kelsey Mitchell
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 25.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 51.3 | 29.9 |
| 2026* | 28.3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 55.0 | 33.5 |
Why yes: She’s second in the league in scoring, has scored at least 20 points in the most straight games in league history, is shooting over 50% from the floor, and is averaging a career high 25 points a game. Since the All Star break it’s jumped to 28 ppg to lead the league.
Why no: She is a one dimensional player. That dimension happens to be scoring so it stands out more, but if she averaged 12 assists or 12 rebounds but only 4 or 5 points then no one would be considering her for anything here. Her NBA twin isn’t Michael Jordan or Dwayne Wade it’s Reggie Miller, and Reggie never finished anywhere the top 5 in MVP voting.
Verdict: She’s the NODE outlier for this season. No one who’s finished this far outside the top 5 NODE for the league in the last 10 years won MVP; they usually finish fourth or fifth at best in the voting save for Jonquel Jones third place finish in 2019. Then there’s her position (guard), top five categories (only one), and the teammate factor (Clark). The ceiling for Kelsey is third.
Paige Bueckers
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 20.6 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 50.7 | 30.5 |
| 2026* | 20.1 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 49.2 | 29.7 |
Paige was a real contender earlier in the season but the Wings have gone 5-7 since the All Star Break and her numbers are slightly down since then, too. Her team is seventh right now with zero chance of cracking the top 4, she isn’t in the top 5 in anything, and she’s a guard. She’s 5th in NODE as of today so she’s still a likely top 5 vote getter barring a total collapse late. But as great as she’s played it’s gotten completely lost in the all the buzz around Aja, Olivia, Caitlin and Kelsey.
Angel Reese
| Year | Points | Reb | Assists | Steals | Blocks | TOs | FG% | NODE |
| 2026 | 16.1 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 43.7 | 31.1 |
| 2026* | 17.4 | 13. 9 | 3. 4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 45.7 | 35.5 |
Why yes: Reese has a NODE score of 36.2 since the All Star Break, second only to Aja. Her team is fighting for fourth in the standings and she’s in the top 5 in two categories. And she’s a big. Historically and statistically speaking she passes every test. She’s putting up ridiculous rebounding numbers every night – nine games with 15 or more rebounds including a 26 rebound game – while scoring in the high teens most nights. Imagine if prime Dennis Rodman was also scoring 15, 16 a game. That’s what’s going on here.
Why no: There are two other bigs in the running this year – Aja and Breanna Stewart – who have higher NODE scores and are better players. Making an MVP call for somebody who has two people ahead of her statistically at her position who are both better players outright, one of whom whose team is ahead of hers in the standings, is a tough hill to climb.
Verdict: She’s not being mentioned in the conversation at all, which is a travesty given her performance this season, so I don’t expect her to finish in any noteworthy position at all in the actual voting. But numbers and history say that she should be a top 5 vote getter.
Anyone else?
Breanna Stewart has the league’s second highest NODE score for the season but is short on top fives (just one category) and her team is currently mired in seventh place. If they can get to sixth then based on history she has a chance of cracking the top five.
So what’s the current tally look like?
| Top 4 Team? | League Leader? | League Top 5s? | NODE over 30? | Top 3 NODE score? | |
| Wilson | x | 2 | 3 | x | x |
| Miles | x | x | |||
| Clark | 1 | 2 | x | x | |
| Mitchell | 1 | ||||
| Bueckers | x | ||||
| Reese | x | 1 | 2 | x | |
| Stewart | x | x |
So if combine all my reference points and my own wacky point system, here’s what the results look like today:
- Wilson (2 leads + 3 top 5s + 3 Yes/No) = 8
- Clark (1 lead + 2 top 5s + 2 Yes/No) = 5
- Reese (1 lead + 2 top 5s + 2 Yes/No) = 5
- Miles (0 leads + 0 top 5s + 2 Yes/No) = 2
- Stewart (0 leads + 0 top 5 + 2 Yes/No) = 2
- Mitchell (0 leads + 1 top 5 + 0 Yes/No) = 1
- Bueckers (0 leads + 0 top 5 + 1 Yes/No) = 1
Other than Aja being in first this looks insane next to all the chatter we’ve been hearing all season, I know. So why do my results differ so much from what we’ve been hearing all year? Can it be explained? I’ll try.
- Aja is…..Aja.
- Clark is the top point generator in the league – which itself has become a thing to watch because she’s putting up Wilt Chamberlain numbers at it compared to the rest of the league – and a multidimensional threat who has gone on some insane runs and broken a lot of offensive records on a team that is fighting for a top four seed.
- Reese isn’t talked about much because her team is perpetually in the middle of the playoff pack, had no lofty predictions about how far they’d go, and quite frankly her style of play doesn’t lend itself to a lot of highlight reels, but she’s quietly having one of the best all around seasons in the league.
- Miles’ team being so good does a whammy on her stats; all four of her fellow Lynx starters made the All Star team either this season or last, and one (Collier) is a perennial top 5 MVP vote getter. If she was on a team with lesser teammates she may have more points and assists because she’d have to do more.
- Mitchell is really great at one thing but being great at only one thing puts her way behind the statistical 8 ball, but lately she’s been so prolific that it maybe enough to get her above certain historical thresholds.
- Stewart is great statistically but her team being eighth is not good for this exercise.
- Paige just doesn’t hit on anything – statistically or in wins and losses – to really qualify here. She’s an aggregator, getting just enough in every statistical category to add up to something bigger than most but nothing at the top individually.
Now the final voting isn’t just going to be based on stats or wins so the final order is going to be different than this. Feelings, vibes, and narratives play a role no matter how much people deny it. Judging by the chatter I’ve seen all season it’s still Aja’s to win but Olivia has getting a lot of love based on Minnesota being first and her being the new phenomenon. Clark and Mitchell are getting a lot of love now but being teammates pits them against each other in this race. As for Reese, Paige, and Stewie…well, this is the most hyped and buzz filled MVP race maybe ever and it’s hard to break through if you cant get on the front page.
Anyway, we’ll see how the real thing turns out but this is how my wacky projections look right now. I’d vote for Aja – she’s the best player in the league if you watch the film, she meets all the statistical criteria that previous winners have set as a standard, and her team is winning enough. I think Clark, Reese, and Mitchell are putting up such eye popping numbers almost every night that it’s hard to bypass any of them for anyone who won’t pass a side by side numbers check given that they’re all on playoff contenders so I’d have them at 2 through 4. But the big takeaway for me is that Reese has been severely undervalued this season.
One thing to remember is that the criteria isn’t the same every year. Sometimes it’s the best player on the best team. Sometimes it’s the best player in the league. Sometimes it’s somebody who is in the midst of a history making season. And sometimes it’s a player who performed at a superhuman level to carry their team any further than it had any business going. What I tried to do here is find some commonalities over the course of history, some traits that the winners and top finalists shared, and use those to predict who’s most likely to win this year. This season is a special one in that we have candidates of all stripes. Wilson is the best player in the league having a big season. Miles has been the best player on the best team. Clark, Mitchell and Reese are all having history making seasons. And Stewie has led a revolving door of injured teammates in New York to a playoff berth. You can talk yourself into or out of voting for any of them, in my opinion. We’ll see how it goes.
Stroke of Genius 